FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 12th, 2018
Contact: Will Ritter
With the countdown to November’s general election drawing near, POOLHOUSE and Cygnal teamed up together to take a look at some of the top issues in the upcoming midterms in Virginia.
This is the 2nd release on this poll, the first release focused on the Senate race, generic ballot and President Trump’s approval.
This release covers topics including Trump’s effect on congressional ballots in Virginia, the popularity of Governor Ralph Northam’s tax plan, the abolishment of ICE, sanctuary cities, and relations with Russia. Additionally, we surveyed the effectiveness of different political advertising tactics as campaigns race to get their messages out before November 6th.
It’s not all politics in Virginia, though. We also asked these likely VA voters to answer questions about the popularity of state-controlled liquor sales (ABC) and paying National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) athletes. We interviewed 1,199 likely voters in Virginia and had a margin of error of ±2.83%.
- 69% of respondents believe that Trump is not being tough enough on Russian President Vladmir Putin
- 61% of respondents believe we should keep ICE
- Roughly the same percentage are against sanctuary cities for illegal aliens
- Given the choice between TV, Social Media, Mail, and Radio, respondents self-report that they are most persuaded by TV advertisements, but with Social Media a surprising second.
- 50% of respondents believe that they are receiving just the right amount of information about the upcoming election, while 30% don’t believe that they are getting enough
- As Governor Northam and the Virginia Legislature debate what to do with $594 million in extra tax revenue, the large majority, 60%, of those asked said they prefer the House Republicans plan, returning the taxes to the middle-class taxpayers by allowing them to keep existing state- tax itemizations they’d lose under Governor Northam’s plan. 29% preferred Governor Northam’s plan of direct payments to low-income families who qualified for the earned income tax credit.
- 46% of participants said they are for the privatization of liquor sales in Virginia, just barely more than the 43% who are opposed
- 58% of Virginians are against paying our student-athletes
- Headed into the height of election season, Trump has the potential to be a drag on the ticket for otherwise popular Republicans this year
- While the Old Dominion continues to lean blue, many Virginians are still not ready to embrace some of the more progressive policies that have popular support on the national stage, particularly when it comes to immigration.
- Virginians may just barely be for the privatization of liquor sales, a sign that the state will be unlikely to make serious moves towards abolishing the ABC anytime in the near future.
- Respondents remain committed to playing for “the love of the game”, a sign that any rule change for NCAA athletes is not likely coming soon.
This probabilistic registration-based phone survey was conducted from August 22 – 24, 2018 with 1,199 responses from likely November 2018 general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±2.83%. The margin of error for subgroups may be greater due to limited sample size. Interviewers were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) to landline phones, allowing any registered voter within the household to complete the survey. All data was collected, processed, and weighted by Cygnal and its affiliate data collection partners.
The partisan makeup of the sample is based on previous midterm election participation and confirmed by voter response on the survey. Respondents were asked “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?” The collected sample consists of:
An alternate “low-Republican” turnout model was created by weighting the partisan composition of the sample to mirror other publicly released surveys. The partisan makeup of this model consists of:
The landline sample was stratified based on past participation and current voter registration within the commonwealth of Virginia. Cygnal used statistical weighting procedures to correct sample deviations from known voter characteristics, including: age, gender, ethnicity, and DMA.